Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
